Author: Jan Verbeek et al
Journal: International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport (2025)

A new study published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport (March 2025) reveals that the journey to elite soccer is far less predictable than most talent systems assume. Researchers from the University of Groningen and the Royal Netherlands Football Association (KNVB) – led by Jan Verbeek and colleagues Susan Niessen, Steffie van der Steen, Nico van Yperen, and Ruud den Hartigh – analysed the career patterns of nearly 3,000 Dutch male and female youth players to understand how future elite athletes actually progress through the system.

Their main message: linear progress from early selection to senior success is the exception, not the rule.

How the study was done

The research team combined large-scale data from the KNVB’s national match database with innovative analytical methods.

• They tracked players from age 5 to 22, reconstructing each athlete’s annual involvement within academies or national youth teams.
• Statistical models were used to examine how recruitment age related to adult performance levels.
• To analyse career “typicality,” the team applied Guttman error analysis – a technique originally from psychology – to quantify interruptions and re-selections in a player’s pathway (for example, being dropped and later reselected).

This approach allowed the authors to move beyond the simple “early vs. late selection” question and to look at patterns of development over time.

Key findings

Few reach the elite stage: Only around 8% of academy players and 10% of national youth team players made it to senior elite soccer by age 23.

Later recruitment may be beneficial: For academy players, those recruited at slightly older ages were more likely to reach senior elite level. This age factor, however, was not significant in the national team pathway.

Interrupted careers often succeed: Players who experienced temporary de-selections and later re-selections — the “atypical” pathways — were more likely to achieve senior elite status. This relationship was especially strong in the national team sample, indicating that future internationals often had irregular career patterns.

Sex differences in pathways:

• Higher success rates among women: About 18% of female national youth team players reached senior international level compared to only 7.6% of male players.
• Different recruitment timing: Female players typically entered the national pathway earlier (around age 14–15), while male players entered later (around age 16).
• Despite these structural differences, the pattern of nonlinearity (interrupted or diverse pathways) appeared in both sexes, suggesting that atypical development benefits apply universally.

What does it mean?

The authors argue that these findings challenge the traditional “linear” model of talent development. Instead of steady, uninterrupted progress (monofinality), elite soccer careers show equifinality – many different roads can lead to the same destination.

From a practical standpoint, the study suggests that:

• Youth systems should maintain flexibility in selection and re-selection.
• Players who are de-selected should still have meaningful chances for re-entry later on.
• Talent identification should embrace the fact that development is dynamic, not fixed.

The authors also reference the Belgian FA’s “future teams” model as an example of good practice, where delayed selection and multiple pathways have yielded strong elite outcomes.

Even at the highest levels, the “perfect” career arc — from early academy recruitment to senior elite success — is rare. The most common route to the top? The atypical one.

📘 Full citation:
Verbeek, J., Niessen, A. S. M., Van Der Steen, S., Van Yperen, N. W., & Den Hartigh, R. J. R. (2025). Career patterns within men’s and women’s soccer talent systems: the typical pathway to the top is atypical. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.

Note: This summary was prepared with the assistance of Claude Opus AI, based on the original research article. The goal is to translate academic findings into clear, practical insights for coaches, talent developers, and sport practitioners.