“Winning teams don’t run more — they run smarter.”

Author: Tom Allen et al.
Journal: Biology of Sport (2026 – 43)

This study analysed 1675 Premier League matches across five seasons (2019–2024) using precise optical tracking data (Second Spectrum). The goal: understand how teams run with and without the ball, and how these running patterns relate to winning games.

The results challenge many common beliefs in football about running performance. It’s not simply “run more to win more,” but rather run smart, in the right moments, and in the right phases of the game.

Below are the key takeaways, written for practical use by coaches and players.

1. Possession is one of the strongest indicators of success

• Teams with higher possession consistently earned more points per game (PPG).
• Over five seasons, the correlation between possession and success was very large (r = .74).
• Top-6 teams averaged 59% possession.

What this means for teams:
Teams who dominate possession (and keep the ball in play longer) create more chances, control the match tempo, and have more opportunities to score.

What this means for players:
Technical discipline under pressure, ball retention, and decision-making directly help the team win—not only physical work.

2. Running without the ball is more linked to winning than running with the ball

Successful teams run more intensely when they do NOT have the ball

Out‑of‑possession running (TOOP), such as:

• pressing
• counterpressing
• recovery runs
• reorganising defensively

…shows moderate to strong correlations with points won.

Meanwhile:

Running with the ball (TIP) is actually negatively correlated with success.
Top teams run less in-possession.

Why? Because strong teams:

• regain possession quickly
• control the ball calmly
• build up in a structured way
• attack from stable, organised positions

They don’t chase the game; they dictate it.

3. Sprinting still matters — but only in decisive moments

Of all physical metrics, sprint distance is the only one that still correlates with winning.

This suggests:

• Total running volume (TD) is no longer a differentiator.
• What matters is the ability to produce explosive runs at the right time—not just running more.

4. Opponent quality changes everything

When playing Top-6 opponents:

Teams run:

• more total distance,
• more in-possession per minute, but
• less out-of-possession intensity (TOOP)

Why?

Lower-ranked teams tend to:

• defend deeper
• protect the box
• allow the opponent more possession
• have less space in attack (requiring shorter, sharper movements)

Higher-ranked teams often:

• dominate possession
• force opponents into low blocks
• limit opponents’ ability to press effectively

Coaches must adapt tactical and physical preparation based on opponent strength.

5. Total running load is no longer a key performance predictor

Previous research suggested that teams who run more win more.

This study proves the game has evolved:

Total running (TD, HID, HSR) has almost no relationship with success anymore.

Why?

• Most EPL teams now hit similar running volumes.
• The league has physically “equalised.”
• Tactical quality determines how running is used—not how much.

6. Out-of-possession intensity reveals tactical superiority

High TOOP values are associated with:

• high pressing
• fast counterpressing
• well-organised transitions
• quick defensive reactions

This is the physical expression of tactical skill.

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Final takeaway

Winning teams don’t run more—they run smarter.

Match success in the Premier League is driven by:

• possession dominance
• tactical organisation
• intense defensive running
• explosive sprinting in key moments
• intelligent adaptations to opponents

This study reinforces a crucial message for modern football:

👉 Physical data must always be interpreted through tactical context.
👉 Running actions are valuable only when aligned with team strategy.

Note: This summary was generated with the assistance of Claude Opus 4.1 based on the original paper, with the aim of translating the research into practical insights for coaches and practitioners.